Arandina 1-3 Real Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒23:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
12.23
Draw
20%
7.78
Away
61%
1.1
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
3.46
Over 2.5
49%
1.28
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.4
No
59%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
8.0
2-3 Goals
44%
2.28
4-5 Goals
21%
2.3
6+ Goals
9%
3.91
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 8.0 — our 26% vs market 7.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
29.0
1/2
7%
24.7
1/X
5%
34.0
X/1
6%
34.0
X/2
20%
3.39
X/X
8%
11.75
2/1
4%
34.0
2/2
35%
1.24
2/X
7%
34.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
5%
+13.7pp
20%
Draw
9%
+10.4pp
61%
Away Win
85%
-24.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
25%
+25.3pp
49%
Over 2.5
75%
-25.3pp
41%
BTTS Yes
38%
+3.9pp
59%
BTTS No
62%
-3.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Arandina EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Madrid EU Bookmakers 91%
+76% / +76% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -2%
0.62/0.86 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/0.63
+150% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -26% / -23%
37% Ball Possession 63%
8 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
246 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 441 · 82%
24.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 27.1
11.0 Crosses 17.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.7
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Arandina
1-3
AWAY Real Madrid
0.08 xG 2.34
22% Ball Possession 78%
2 Total Shots 15
1 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
125 Passes 659
62% Pass Accuracy 91%
9 Box Touches 23
12 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Arandina vs Real Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Madrid saw off Arandina 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Madrid as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Arandina had 22% of the ball to Real Madrid's 78%, shots finished 2-15, expected goals 0.08 to 2.34.

What was the final score of Arandina vs Real Madrid?

Arandina 1-3 Real Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Arandina vs Real Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Arandina 19%, draw 20%, Real Madrid 61%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Real Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSPK More Spain - Copa del Rey
6 Jan 2024
18:00 Lugo vs Atletico Madrid Analysis →
19:00 Espanyol vs Getafe Analysis →
20:00 Elche vs Girona Analysis →
21:00 Huesca vs Rayo Vallecano Analysis →
22:00 Deportivo Alaves vs Real Betis Analysis →