Lugo 1-3 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
9.57
Draw
25%
5.15
Away
52%
1.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.29
Over 2.5
47%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.16
No
57%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.31
2-3 Goals
40%
1.84
4-5 Goals
22%
2.81
6+ Goals
9%
8.13
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.31 — our 29% vs market 17.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
19.7
1/2
6%
25.0
1/X
5%
28.0
X/1
8%
23.0
X/2
14%
3.18
X/X
13%
7.9
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
32%
1.43
2/X
7%
28.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
8%
+15.3pp
25%
Draw
16%
+8.3pp
52%
Away Win
76%
-23.7pp
53%
Under 2.5
40%
+13.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
60%
-13.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
42%
+1.0pp
57%
BTTS No
58%
-1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lugo EU Bookmakers 10%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 80%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -13%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / +26%
41% Ball Possession 59%
8 Total Shots 15
2 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
266 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 455 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.2
Crosses 18.5
Yellow Cards 2.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lugo
1-3
AWAY Atletico Madrid
0.87 xG 2.01
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 3
9 Corners 4
296 Passes 520
79% Pass Accuracy 87%
14 Box Touches 23
24 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lugo vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid beat Lugo 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Atletico Madrid as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lugo had 39% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 61%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.87 to 2.01.

What was the final score of Lugo vs Atletico Madrid?

Lugo 1-3 Atletico Madrid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lugo vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Atletico Madrid win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Lugo 23%, draw 25%, Atletico Madrid 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Atletico Madrid) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Atletico Madrid) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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