Novara 1-0 Alessandria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.92
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.56
Over 2.5
44%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.13
No
54%
1.63
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2.21
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
22%
5.11
6+ Goals
8%
32.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
5%
1/X
12%
X/1
21%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
6%
2/2
13%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.4pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.5pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.9pp
56%
Under 2.5
60%
-3.8pp
44%
Over 2.5
40%
+3.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
43%
+3.1pp
54%
BTTS No
57%
-3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Novara EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Alessandria EU Bookmakers 28%
-10% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +10%
1.30/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.70/0.94
-13% / -7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +33%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
319 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 286 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Novara
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alessandria
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.09.2023 Alessandria Alessandria 0-0 HT 0-0 Novara Novara İTC
05.10.2022 Alessandria Alessandria 2-1 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTCK
07.02.2021 Novara Novara 2-1 HT 1-1 Alessandria Alessandria İTC
12.10.2020 Alessandria Alessandria 1-2 HT 1-1 Novara Novara İTC
02.11.2019 Alessandria Alessandria 1-0 HT 1-0 Novara Novara İTC
09.10.2019 Novara Novara 0-1 HT 0-0 Alessandria Alessandria İTCK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Novara
1-0
AWAY Alessandria
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 4
10 Shots on Target 1
4 Corners 4
0 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Novara vs Alessandria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Novara nicked a narrow win over Alessandria 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Novara as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (56%) came in.

On the day, Novara had 57% of the ball to Alessandria's 43%, shots finished 19-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alessandria led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Novara and 1.00 for Alessandria.

What was the final score of Novara vs Alessandria?

Novara 1-0 Alessandria in the Italy - Serie C on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Novara vs Alessandria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Novara win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Novara 44%, draw 27%, Alessandria 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Novara), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Novara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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