AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Ipswich Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Jan 2024

AFC Wimbledon
1-3 HT 1-2
Ipswich Town
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒15:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich Town Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
4.13
Draw
24%
3.8
Away
41%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.07
Over 2.5
47%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.76
No
52%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
3.68
2-3 Goals
45%
1.8
4-5 Goals
20%
3.2
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.68 — our 26% vs market 21.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
7.63
1/2
5%
22.15
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1 EV+ ✗
16%
9.97
X/2
13%
3.84
X/X
12%
5.54
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.06
2/X
5%
15.45
Value flag · X/1 at 9.97 — our 16% vs market 6.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
21%
+14.4pp
24%
Draw
23%
+1.4pp
41%
Away Win
56%
-15.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.8pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

AFC Wimbledon v Ipswich Town — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 24%
Head to Head
AWAY Ipswich Town EU Bookmakers 61%
-15% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +27% / +27%
0.59/1.13 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.99/0.99
-57% / +44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +24%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
269 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 77%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
27.0 Crosses –
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.0

AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Ipswich Town
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.45 xG 1.06
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
218 Passes 339
65% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
16.07.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-3 HT 0-1 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town HAZ
25.01.2022 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-2 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İN1
28.08.2021 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 2-2 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
24.04.2021 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN1
13.04.2021 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 3-0 HT 2-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İN1
11.02.2020 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 0-0 HT 0-0 Ipswich Town Ipswich Town İN1

AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Ipswich Town — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-3
AWAY Ipswich Town
39% Ball Possession 61%
7 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
6 Corners 7
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ipswich Town beat AFC Wimbledon 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 1-2.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ipswich Town as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 39% of the ball to Ipswich Town's 61%, shots finished 7-19.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ipswich Town led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.17 for Ipswich Town.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich Town?

AFC Wimbledon 1-3 Ipswich Town in the England - FA Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Ipswich Town?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ipswich Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 35%, draw 24%, Ipswich Town 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ipswich Town) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ipswich Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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