Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Sutton United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
26%
4.62
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.63
Over 2.5
54%
1.44
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.71
2-3 Goals
40%
2.02
4-5 Goals
24%
2.56
6+ Goals
13%
5.87
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.63
1/2
8%
34.0
1/X
5%
18.75
X/1
18%
3.71
X/2
6%
14.9
X/X
13%
7.89
2/1
6%
19.35
2/2
6%
10.3
2/X
8%
18.7
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
66%
-12.5pp
26%
Draw
19%
+7.5pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+4.9pp
46%
Under 2.5
34%
+11.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
66%
-11.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.4pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Sutton United EU Bookmakers 18%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
2.36/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.00
+9% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / +108%
60% Ball Possession 40%
16 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
408 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 68%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 40.0
Crosses 43.0
Yellow Cards 1.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Plymouth Argyle
3-1
AWAY Sutton United
61% Ball Possession 39%
11 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Plymouth Argyle vs Sutton United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Plymouth Argyle saw off Sutton United 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Plymouth Argyle as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Plymouth Argyle had 61% of the ball to Sutton United's 39%, shots finished 11-7.

What was the final score of Plymouth Argyle vs Sutton United?

Plymouth Argyle 3-1 Sutton United in the England - FA Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Plymouth Argyle vs Sutton United?

Before kick-off our model rated a Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Plymouth Argyle 54%, draw 26%, Sutton United 20%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Plymouth Argyle), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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