Sunderland 0-3 Newcastle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Jan 2024

📅06/01/2024 · 🕒15:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
23%
3.8
Away
50%
1.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.23
Over 2.5
57%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.31
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.9
6+ Goals
13%
8.61
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
7.17
1/2
6%
20.75
1/X
6%
15.45
X/1
11%
9.93
X/2
18%
3.98
X/X
11%
5.96
2/1 EV+ ✗
10%
34.0
2/2
26%
2.05
2/X
6%
14.95
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.0 — our 10% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
21%
+6.4pp
23%
Draw
23%
-0.1pp
50%
Away Win
56%
-6.3pp
43%
Under 2.5
41%
+1.5pp
57%
Over 2.5
59%
-1.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.2pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sunderland EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Newcastle EU Bookmakers 61%
-40% / -40% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -51% / -51%
1.04/2.20 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.01/1.45
+45% / -46% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / -32%
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
220 · 65% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 76%
32.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 43.4
7.0 Crosses 34.4
0.0 Yellow Cards 0.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sunderland
0-3
AWAY Newcastle
0.18 xG 1.92
36% Ball Possession 64%
5 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
0 Corners 5
248 Passes 483
80% Pass Accuracy 87%
4 Box Touches 29
6 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sunderland vs Newcastle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newcastle cruised past Sunderland 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Newcastle as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (57%) landed while both teams to score (56%) missed.

On the day, Sunderland had 36% of the ball to Newcastle's 64%, shots finished 5-10, expected goals 0.18 to 1.92.

What was the final score of Sunderland vs Newcastle?

Sunderland 0-3 Newcastle in the England - FA Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sunderland vs Newcastle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Newcastle win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sunderland 28%, draw 23%, Newcastle 50%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Newcastle), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Newcastle) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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