Newport County 1-1 Eastleigh — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - FA Cup, 6 Jan 2024

Newport County
1-1 HT 0-0
Eastleigh
📅06/01/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
England - FA Cup – 2023/2024

Newport County vs Eastleigh Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.8
Draw
25%
3.72
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.43
Over 2.5
53%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.53
No
47%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.94
2-3 Goals
42%
1.93
4-5 Goals
26%
2.71
6+ Goals
9%
7.08
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.31
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
7%
13.3
X/1
17%
4.48
X/2
11%
8.47
X/X
8%
5.88
2/1
6%
20.55
2/2
12%
5.58
2/X EV+ ✗
11%
13.65
Value flag · 2/X at 13.65 — our 11% vs market 4.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-4.5pp
25%
Draw
23%
+1.6pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+3.0pp
47%
Under 2.5
38%
+9.0pp
53%
Over 2.5
62%
-9.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
61%
-8.5pp
47%
BTTS No
39%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Newport County v Eastleigh — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Newport County EU Bookmakers 56%
Head to Head
AWAY Eastleigh EU Bookmakers 29%
+35% / +35% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
2.26/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.90
+21% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
414 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 299 · 77%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Newport County 1-1 Eastleigh — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Newport County
1-1
AWAY Eastleigh
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 4
4 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 5
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Newport County vs Eastleigh
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Newport County and Eastleigh couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Newport County at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Newport County had 60% of the ball to Eastleigh's 40%, shots finished 17-4.

What was the final score of Newport County vs Eastleigh?

Newport County 1-1 Eastleigh in the England - FA Cup on 06/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Newport County vs Eastleigh?

Before kick-off our model rated a Newport County win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Newport County 47%, draw 25%, Eastleigh 28%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Newport County), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Newport County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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