Celje 1-0 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 6 Mar 2025

Celje
1-0 HT 1-0
Lugano
📅06/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.28
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
1.97
Over 2.5
57%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.61
No
44%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.58
2-3 Goals
37%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.17
6+ Goals
14%
10.95
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.17 — our 28% vs market 25.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.62
1/2
5%
27.5
1/X
9%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.79
X/2
11%
5.99
X/X
8%
4.75
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
26.5
2/2
22%
3.82
2/X
9%
12.3
Value flag · 2/1 at 26.5 — our 12% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
38%
-1.3pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
38%
Away Win
35%
+3.2pp
43%
Under 2.5
47%
-3.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
53%
+3.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
58%
-1.4pp
44%
BTTS No
42%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Celje EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 38%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+44% / -38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
352 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 79%
17.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
9.0 Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Celje
1-0
AWAY Lugano
0.48 xG 1.85
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
288 Passes 349
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
12 Box Touches 28
11 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Celje vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celje edged past Lugano 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Celje made the difference. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Celje had 46% of the ball to Lugano's 54%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.48 to 1.85 — the balance of chances actually favoured Lugano.

What was the final score of Celje vs Lugano?

Celje 1-0 Lugano in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Celje vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Celje 36%, draw 26%, Lugano 38%. The final score 1-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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