Molde 3-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
28%
3.18
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.86
Over 2.5
47%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.7
No
51%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.2
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
24%
3.44
6+ Goals
9%
13.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.2 — our 27% vs market 24.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.28
1/2
9%
31.0
1/X
11%
12.25
X/1
11%
5.33
X/2
10%
6.49
X/X
11%
4.45
2/1
6%
26.5
2/2
13%
4.48
2/X
6%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.6pp
28%
Draw
28%
+0.1pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+0.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
50%
+3.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
50%
-3.0pp
49%
BTTS Yes
55%
-5.6pp
51%
BTTS No
45%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 34%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +18%
1.66/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.51/1.63
+12% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -29%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
27.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.7
17.7 Crosses 22.8
3.7 Yellow Cards 3.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Molde
2W-0D-0L
AWAY Legia Varşova
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.70 xG 1.13
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 8
305 Passes 368
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
16 Box Touches 26
10 Crosses 26
4 Yellow Cards 2
22.02.2024 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova 0-3 HT 0-2 Molde Molde AVKL
15.02.2024 Molde Molde 3-2 HT 3-0 Legia Varşova Legia Varşova AVKL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
3-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
1.93 xG 2.65
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 10
424 Passes 315
84% Pass Accuracy 86%
26 Box Touches 39
8 Crosses 39
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Molde vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde edged past Legia Varşova 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Molde made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Molde had 56% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 44%, shots finished 12-16, expected goals 1.93 to 2.65 — the balance of chances actually favoured Legia Varşova.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Molde had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Molde and 1.00 for Legia Varşova.

What was the final score of Molde vs Legia Varşova?

Molde 3-2 Legia Varşova in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Molde 40%, draw 28%, Legia Varşova 32%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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