Molde 3-2 Legia Varşova — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 15 Feb 2024

📅15/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.02
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.91
Over 2.5
48%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.7
No
49%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.41
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
3.42
6+ Goals
12%
13.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.41 — our 28% vs market 23.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
2.78
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
21%
4.57
X/2
15%
6.95
X/X
12%
4.69
2/1
6%
24.6
2/2
10%
5.0
2/X
8%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
46%
-1.6pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.4pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.2pp
52%
Under 2.5
48%
+3.5pp
48%
Over 2.5
52%
-3.5pp
51%
BTTS Yes
55%
-3.4pp
49%
BTTS No
45%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Molde EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Legia Varşova EU Bookmakers 32%
+14% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +26% / +26%
1.00/0.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.60
+24% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -56%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
411 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
41.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
27.0 Crosses 21.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 4.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Molde
3-2
AWAY Legia Varşova
2.06 xG 1.27
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 10
384 Passes 288
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 27
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Molde vs Legia Varşova
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Molde nicked a narrow win over Legia Varşova 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Molde as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Molde had 55% of the ball to Legia Varşova's 45%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 2.06 to 1.27.

What was the final score of Molde vs Legia Varşova?

Molde 3-2 Legia Varşova in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 15/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Molde vs Legia Varşova?

Before kick-off our model rated a Molde win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Molde 44%, draw 27%, Legia Varşova 29%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Molde), BTTS Yes — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Molde) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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