Sturm Graz 4-1 Slovan Bratislava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 15 Feb 2024

📅15/02/2024 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.76
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
31%
4.04
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.82
Over 2.5
45%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.82
No
56%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.16
2-3 Goals
44%
1.76
4-5 Goals
18%
3.63
6+ Goals
8%
15.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.16 — our 30% vs market 25.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.32
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
4%
13.85
X/1
21%
4.06
X/2
9%
8.73
X/X
12%
4.63
2/1
5%
24.6
2/2
14%
6.84
2/X
6%
14.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
53%
-6.5pp
23%
Draw
26%
-2.9pp
31%
Away Win
22%
+9.4pp
55%
Under 2.5
51%
+3.7pp
45%
Over 2.5
49%
-3.7pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Slovan Bratislava EU Bookmakers 25%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +20% / +20%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +51% / +30%
53% Ball Possession 47%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
335 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 72%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.4
Crosses 11.6
Yellow Cards 3.0
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sturm Graz
4-1
AWAY Slovan Bratislava
2.66 xG 0.93
55% Ball Possession 45%
25 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 2
346 Passes 268
79% Pass Accuracy 72%
38 Box Touches 11
29 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz vs Slovan Bratislava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sturm Graz ran out comfortable winners over Slovan Bratislava 4-1. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Sturm Graz as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sturm Graz had 55% of the ball to Slovan Bratislava's 45%, shots finished 25-7, expected goals 2.66 to 0.93.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz vs Slovan Bratislava?

Sturm Graz 4-1 Slovan Bratislava in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 15/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz vs Slovan Bratislava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sturm Graz win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz 46%, draw 23%, Slovan Bratislava 31%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sturm Graz) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Sturm Graz) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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