Panathinaikos 3-2 Fiorentina — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.8
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
35%
2.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.52
Over 2.5
45%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
22%
5.03
6+ Goals
8%
31.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
4.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.1
X/1
16%
5.85
X/2
13%
5.13
X/X
10%
3.65
2/1
9%
34.5
2/2
16%
3.73
2/X
9%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
32%
+6.3pp
26%
Draw
31%
-4.6pp
35%
Away Win
37%
-1.7pp
55%
Under 2.5
62%
-7.0pp
45%
Over 2.5
38%
+7.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+2.9pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-2.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Panathinaikos EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Fiorentina EU Bookmakers 40%
+30% / +30% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
0.83/2.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/0.90
+34% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -19% / +16%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
278 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 346 · 75%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.1
8.0 Crosses 14.2
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Panathinaikos
3-2
AWAY Fiorentina
1.51 xG 1.89
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
320 Passes 314
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
25 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Panathinaikos vs Fiorentina
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Panathinaikos squeezed past Fiorentina 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 26% / 35% — and on the day Panathinaikos made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Panathinaikos had 51% of the ball to Fiorentina's 49%, shots finished 12-14, expected goals 1.51 to 1.89.

What was the final score of Panathinaikos vs Fiorentina?

Panathinaikos 3-2 Fiorentina in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Panathinaikos vs Fiorentina?

Before kick-off our model rated a Panathinaikos win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Panathinaikos 39%, draw 26%, Fiorentina 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Panathinaikos) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Panathinaikos) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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