FC Copenhagen 1-2 Chelsea — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.75
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
45%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.68
Over 2.5
53%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.95
No
49%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2.69
2-3 Goals
41%
1.74
4-5 Goals
23%
4.06
6+ Goals
11%
19.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
6.9
1/2
5%
26.5
1/X
7%
15.5
X/1
11%
8.26
X/2
16%
4.26
X/X
9%
4.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
34.5
2/2
24%
2.5
2/X
6%
14.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 9% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
24%
+9.2pp
22%
Draw
27%
-5.0pp
46%
Away Win
50%
-4.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
56%
-9.1pp
53%
Over 2.5
44%
+9.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.1pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Copenhagen EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Chelsea EU Bookmakers 54%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
301 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Copenhagen
1-2
AWAY Chelsea
0.45 xG 0.41
38% Ball Possession 62%
5 Total Shots 5
2 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 0
373 Passes 665
88% Pass Accuracy 92%
9 Box Touches 9
12 Crosses 5
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH FC Copenhagen vs Chelsea
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chelsea edged past FC Copenhagen 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Chelsea as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, FC Copenhagen had 38% of the ball to Chelsea's 62%, shots finished 5-5, expected goals 0.45 to 0.41.

What was the final score of FC Copenhagen vs Chelsea?

FC Copenhagen 1-2 Chelsea in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Copenhagen vs Chelsea?

Before kick-off our model rated an Chelsea win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split FC Copenhagen 33%, draw 22%, Chelsea 46%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chelsea), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chelsea) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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