Pafos 1-0 Djurgarden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa Conference League, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.72
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
23%
4.47
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.75
Over 2.5
48%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.96
No
49%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.85
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
21%
3.83
6+ Goals
8%
17.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
2.19
1/2
4%
34.5
1/X
8%
14.7
X/1
16%
4.08
X/2
9%
9.76
X/X
12%
4.68
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
10%
8.29
2/X
5%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
55%
-2.9pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.3pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.4pp
51%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.0pp
49%
BTTS No
53%
-4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pafos EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Djurgarden EU Bookmakers 22%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -7%
3.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.33/1.93
+72% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -14%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
475 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 237 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
Crosses 17.2
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pafos
1-0
AWAY Djurgarden
1.59 xG 1.14
66% Ball Possession 34%
16 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 2
380 Passes 165
82% Pass Accuracy 67%
35 Box Touches 16
32 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Pafos vs Djurgarden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pafos squeezed past Djurgarden 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Pafos as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Pafos had 66% of the ball to Djurgarden's 34%, shots finished 16-11, expected goals 1.59 to 1.14.

What was the final score of Pafos vs Djurgarden?

Pafos 1-0 Djurgarden in the UEFA Europa Conference League on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pafos vs Djurgarden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pafos win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Pafos 52%, draw 25%, Djurgarden 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pafos), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Pafos) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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