Aurora 0-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.47
Draw
22%
4.19
Away
23%
5.27
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.1
Over 2.5
49%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.82
No
51%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
29%
3.84
2-3 Goals
39%
1.8
4-5 Goals
19%
2.92
6+ Goals
13%
9.11
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.84 — our 29% vs market 19.6%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
9%
2/1
10%
2/2
7%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS No ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
64%
-8.6pp
22%
Draw
21%
+1.7pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+6.9pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.9pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-2.1pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aurora EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY Gualberto Villarroel SJ EU Bookmakers 19%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
314 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 234 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aurora
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Gualberto Villarroel SJ
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.26 xG 1.72
36% Ball Possession 64%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 8
178 Passes 355
77% Pass Accuracy 87%
16 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 33
5 Yellow Cards 5
20.11.2024 Gualberto Villarroel SJ Gualberto Villarroel SJ 2-2 HT 1-1 Aurora Aurora BOLİ
14.07.2024 Aurora Aurora 2-1 HT 2-0 Gualberto Villarroel SJ Gualberto Villarroel SJ BOLİ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aurora
0-1
AWAY Gualberto Villarroel SJ
1.05 xG 0.95
55% Ball Possession 45%
19 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 0
264 Passes 205
76% Pass Accuracy 69%
31 Box Touches 12
32 Crosses 10
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gualberto Villarroel SJ edged past Aurora 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

This one beat our numbers. Aurora carried 55% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Aurora had 55% of the ball to Gualberto Villarroel SJ's 45%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.05 to 0.95.

Coming into the game, across their last 2 meetings in our records, Aurora had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Aurora and 1.50 for Gualberto Villarroel SJ.

What was the final score of Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?

Aurora 0-1 Gualberto Villarroel SJ in the Copa Sudamericana on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ?

Before kick-off our model rated a Aurora win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Aurora 55%, draw 22%, Gualberto Villarroel SJ 23%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Aurora) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Aurora) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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