Once Caldas 1-0 Millonarios — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.67
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
33%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.56
Over 2.5
46%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.96
No
50%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2.31
2-3 Goals
42%
1.72
4-5 Goals
18%
4.64
6+ Goals
9%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
34%
+5.1pp
29%
Draw
30%
-1.7pp
33%
Away Win
36%
-3.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
60%
-5.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
40%
+5.7pp
50%
BTTS Yes
47%
+3.3pp
50%
BTTS No
53%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Once Caldas EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Millonarios EU Bookmakers 40%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +43% / -48%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
292 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Once Caldas
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Millonarios
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.15 xG 0.98
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
230 Passes 348
72% Pass Accuracy 81%
15 Box Touches 18
13 Crosses 20
4 Yellow Cards 2
08.09.2024 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
28.02.2024 Millonarios Millonarios 0-2 HT 0-1 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
22.08.2023 Millonarios Millonarios 2-1 HT 1-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
27.02.2023 Once Caldas Once Caldas 1-0 HT 1-0 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
11.09.2022 Once Caldas Once Caldas 2-1 HT 1-1 Millonarios Millonarios KOL
19.03.2022 Millonarios Millonarios 1-0 HT 0-0 Once Caldas Once Caldas KOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Once Caldas
1-0
AWAY Millonarios
1.39 xG 0.35
39% Ball Possession 61%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 5
232 Passes 416
77% Pass Accuracy 86%
13 Box Touches 12
14 Crosses 18
5 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Once Caldas vs Millonarios
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Once Caldas nicked a narrow win over Millonarios 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Once Caldas found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Once Caldas had 39% of the ball to Millonarios's 61%, shots finished 14-8, expected goals 1.39 to 0.35.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Once Caldas had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Once Caldas and 0.83 for Millonarios.

What was the final score of Once Caldas vs Millonarios?

Once Caldas 1-0 Millonarios in the Copa Sudamericana on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Once Caldas vs Millonarios?

Before kick-off our model rated a Once Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Once Caldas 39%, draw 29%, Millonarios 33%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Once Caldas), Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Once Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5
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