Grobina 1-1 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 6 Mar 2025

📅06/03/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
29%
3.63
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.8
Over 2.5
48%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.81
No
51%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
34%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
5%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
5%
2/2
9%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
49%
-7.2pp
29%
Draw
27%
+2.5pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+4.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
52%
+0.4pp
48%
Over 2.5
48%
-0.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS No
49%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grobina EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 28%
-64% / -64% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.09/2.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.60
+20% / -67% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
312 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 284 · 77%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
13.0 Crosses 18.1
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grobina
1W-0D-3L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.75 Avg Goals (FT) 2.25
1.19 xG 1.49
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
7 Corners 4
297 Passes 255
70% Pass Accuracy 71%
21 Box Touches 23
16 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 1
09.11.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 Grobina Grobina LET
23.08.2024 Grobina Grobina 2-3 HT 1-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
16.06.2024 Grobina Grobina 4-2 HT 1-1 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
28.04.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-1 Grobina Grobina LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grobina
1-1
AWAY FS Jelgava
0.86 xG 1.32
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 9
287 Passes 237
76% Pass Accuracy 75%
22 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Grobina vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grobina and FS Jelgava shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Grobina at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Grobina had 52% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 48%, shots finished 15-14, expected goals 0.86 to 1.32.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.75 goals for Grobina and 2.25 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of Grobina vs FS Jelgava?

Grobina 1-1 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 06/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grobina vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a Grobina win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Grobina 42%, draw 29%, FS Jelgava 29%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Grobina), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Grobina) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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