UPDF 1-1 Kitara — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Uganda - Premier League, 6 Mar 2026

UPDF
1-1 HT 0-0
Kitara
📅06/03/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
3.75
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
46%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.52
Over 2.5
36%
2.38
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
2.09
No
55%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
37%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
15%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
14%
X/1
12%
X/2
29%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
23%
+0.9pp
30%
Draw
30%
+0.6pp
46%
Away Win
47%
-1.5pp
64%
Under 2.5
62%
+2.2pp
36%
Over 2.5
38%
-2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
44%
+1.4pp
55%
BTTS No
56%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UPDF EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Kitara EU Bookmakers 51%
-20% / -20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
0.37/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/0.00
-62% / +18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% /
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 362 · 81%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.2 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UPDF
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Kitara
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
1 Yellow Cards 1
07.01.2026 Kitara Kitara 2-1 HT 2-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
13.02.2025 UPDF UPDF 0-0 HT 0-0 Kitara Kitara UGA
22.11.2024 Kitara Kitara 4-0 HT 3-0 UPDF UPDF UGA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UPDF
1-1
AWAY Kitara
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 4
5 Shots on Target 2
1 Corners 1
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH UPDF vs Kitara
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

UPDF and Kitara shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Kitara at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, UPDF had 46% of the ball to Kitara's 54%, shots finished 11-4.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Kitara led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for UPDF and 2.00 for Kitara.

What was the final score of UPDF vs Kitara?

UPDF 1-1 Kitara in the Uganda - Premier League on 06/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UPDF vs Kitara?

Before kick-off our model rated an Kitara win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split UPDF 24%, draw 30%, Kitara 46%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Kitara), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Kitara) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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