AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 6 Apr 2024

📅06/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
29%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.82
Over 2.5
50%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.76
No
51%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.78
4-5 Goals
22%
3.68
6+ Goals
11%
15.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.19 — our 27% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
17%
4.47
X/2
11%
7.32
X/X
13%
4.54
2/1
8%
25.5
2/2
12%
5.48
2/X
8%
13.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
47%
-3.2pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
26%
+2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
51%
-1.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
49%
+1.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
53%
-4.0pp
51%
BTTS No
47%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME AFC Wimbledon EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Salford City EU Bookmakers 30%
-1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +22%
1.40/0.69 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.26
+8% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +8%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
301 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 233 · 65%
17.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.8
18.6 Crosses 18.8
2.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME AFC Wimbledon
0W-2D-1L
AWAY Salford City
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.39 xG 1.53
41% Ball Possession 59%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
250 Passes 400
70% Pass Accuracy 79%
24 Box Touches 18
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
16.12.2023 Salford City Salford City 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
10.04.2023 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon 2-3 HT 1-0 Salford City Salford City İN2
12.11.2022 Salford City Salford City 0-0 HT 0-0 AFC Wimbledon AFC Wimbledon İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME AFC Wimbledon
1-0
AWAY Salford City
0.61 xG 0.79
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
186 Passes 206
60% Pass Accuracy 62%
20 Box Touches 18
9 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 7
POST-MATCH AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AFC Wimbledon squeezed past Salford City 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had AFC Wimbledon as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, AFC Wimbledon had 48% of the ball to Salford City's 52%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.61 to 0.79.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Salford City led the recent series with 1 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.00 for Salford City.

What was the final score of AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?

AFC Wimbledon 1-0 Salford City in the England - 2nd Division on 06/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for AFC Wimbledon vs Salford City?

Before kick-off our model rated a AFC Wimbledon win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split AFC Wimbledon 44%, draw 27%, Salford City 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AFC Wimbledon), BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AFC Wimbledon) ✓ BTTS No
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