Lecce 1-1 Venezia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.25
Draw
26%
2.94
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
59%
1.59
Over 2.5
41%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.95
No
54%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.47
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.61
6+ Goals
9%
25.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.47 — our 36% vs market 33.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.41
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.0
X/1
16%
5.14
X/2
17%
6.66
X/X
11%
3.77
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
11%
5.12
2/X
8%
13.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
41%
-0.1pp
26%
Draw
30%
-4.7pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+4.9pp
59%
Under 2.5
59%
-0.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
41%
+0.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.7pp
54%
BTTS No
53%
+1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lecce EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Venezia EU Bookmakers 32%
-4% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -24% / -24%
1.33/0.94 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.84
-28% / +38% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / -7%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
20.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.0
20.7 Crosses 16.2
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lecce
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Venezia
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.28 xG 1.43
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
391 Passes 328
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
25.11.2024 Venezia Venezia 0-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTA
20.05.2021 Lecce Lecce 1-1 HT 0-1 Venezia Venezia İTB
17.05.2021 Venezia Venezia 1-0 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
16.03.2021 Venezia Venezia 2-3 HT 1-1 Lecce Lecce İTB
05.12.2020 Lecce Lecce 2-2 HT 1-2 Venezia Venezia İTB
11.02.2019 Venezia Venezia 1-1 HT 0-0 Lecce Lecce İTB
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lecce
1-1
AWAY Venezia
1.24 xG 0.56
50% Ball Possession 50%
23 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 3
208 Passes 214
71% Pass Accuracy 69%
37 Box Touches 22
30 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Lecce vs Venezia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lecce and Venezia shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 26% / 34% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (59%) came in.

On the day, Lecce had 50% of the ball to Venezia's 50%, shots finished 23-13, expected goals 1.24 to 0.56.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lecce had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Lecce and 1.17 for Venezia.

What was the final score of Lecce vs Venezia?

Lecce 1-1 Venezia in the Italy - Serie A on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lecce vs Venezia?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lecce win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Lecce 40%, draw 26%, Venezia 34%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Lecce), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lecce) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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