Roma 1-1 Juventus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
2.33
Draw
30%
2.94
Away
27%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
53%
1.62
Over 2.5
47%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.88
No
50%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.57
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
23%
4.4
6+ Goals
10%
22.9
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
28%
3.57
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
8%
13.0
X/1
8%
5.31
X/2
12%
6.33
X/X
15%
3.9
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
9%
4.7
2/X
7%
13.4
Value flag · 1/1 at 3.57 — our 28% vs market 22.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 53%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
39%
+4.1pp
30%
Draw
30%
-0.4pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-3.6pp
53%
Under 2.5
58%
-4.5pp
47%
Over 2.5
42%
+4.5pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roma EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Juventus EU Bookmakers 34%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -6%
1.42/0.95 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.39
+3% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 79%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.7
19.0 Crosses 11.9
3.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roma
1W-3D-2L
AWAY Juventus
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.10 xG 0.86
50% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
400 Passes 394
85% Pass Accuracy 87%
19 Box Touches 20
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.09.2024 Juventus Juventus 0-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
05.05.2024 Roma Roma 1-1 HT 1-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
30.12.2023 Juventus Juventus 1-0 HT 0-0 Roma Roma İTA
05.03.2023 Roma Roma 1-0 HT 0-0 Juventus Juventus İTA
27.08.2022 Juventus Juventus 1-1 HT 1-0 Roma Roma İTA
09.01.2022 Roma Roma 3-4 HT 1-1 Juventus Juventus İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roma
1-1
AWAY Juventus
1.09 xG 0.78
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 4
353 Passes 544
85% Pass Accuracy 89%
15 Box Touches 23
18 Crosses 22
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Roma vs Juventus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roma and Juventus couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Roma at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Roma had 41% of the ball to Juventus's 59%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.09 to 0.78.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Juventus led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Roma and 1.17 for Juventus.

What was the final score of Roma vs Juventus?

Roma 1-1 Juventus in the Italy - Serie A on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roma vs Juventus?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roma win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Roma 43%, draw 30%, Juventus 27%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Roma) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roma) ✓ Under 2.5
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