Atalanta 0-1 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
1.66
Draw
26%
3.64
Away
29%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5 OUR CALL
54%
2.0
Over 2.5
46%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.75
No
52%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
27%
3.7
2-3 Goals
43%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.17
6+ Goals
10%
10.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.7 — our 27% vs market 21.4%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.14
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
7%
13.95
X/1
12%
4.36
X/2
10%
10.25
X/X
11%
5.39
2/1
10%
22.45
2/2
13%
8.01
2/X
8%
15.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 54%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
56%
-10.8pp
26%
Draw
24%
+2.0pp
29%
Away Win
20%
+8.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
46%
+7.7pp
46%
Over 2.5
54%
-7.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
53%
-5.1pp
52%
BTTS No
47%
+5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atalanta EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 23%
-6% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -10%
1.92/1.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.67
+16% / -30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -26%
55% Ball Possession 45%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
400 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 306 · 77%
31.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.1
21.3 Crosses 12.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atalanta
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lazio
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.69 xG 0.94
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
416 Passes 456
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Box Touches 14
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
28.12.2024 Lazio Lazio 1-1 HT 1-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
04.02.2024 Atalanta Atalanta 3-1 HT 2-0 Lazio Lazio İTA
08.10.2023 Lazio Lazio 3-2 HT 2-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
11.02.2023 Lazio Lazio 0-2 HT 0-1 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
23.10.2022 Atalanta Atalanta 0-2 HT 0-1 Lazio Lazio İTA
22.01.2022 Lazio Lazio 0-0 HT 0-0 Atalanta Atalanta İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atalanta
0-1
AWAY Lazio
0.53 xG 0.52
58% Ball Possession 42%
10 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 4
421 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 78%
42 Box Touches 12
34 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Atalanta vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lazio squeezed past Atalanta 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Atalanta at 45%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Atalanta had 58% of the ball to Lazio's 42%, shots finished 10-8, expected goals 0.53 to 0.52.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Atalanta and 1.17 for Lazio.

What was the final score of Atalanta vs Lazio?

Atalanta 0-1 Lazio in the Italy - Serie A on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atalanta vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Atalanta win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Atalanta 45%, draw 26%, Lazio 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Atalanta) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Atalanta) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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