Libertad 1-0 Cerro Porteno — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Paraguay - Profesyonel League, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.19
Draw
30%
3.04
Away
29%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.99
No
55%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
18%
X/2
13%
X/X
10%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
13%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-0.7pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.0pp
29%
Away Win
29%
-0.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.2pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
46%
-0.7pp
55%
BTTS No
54%
+0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Libertad EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Cerro Porteno EU Bookmakers 32%
+8% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -9%
1.70/0.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.12/1.43
+40% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -19%
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
315 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Libertad
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Cerro Porteno
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
2 Yellow Cards 2
27.01.2025 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-2 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
29.11.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 2-3 HT 1-1 Libertad Libertad PAR
15.09.2024 Libertad Libertad 2-1 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
04.05.2024 Libertad Libertad 1-3 HT 0-1 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
12.02.2024 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno 1-1 HT 0-0 Libertad Libertad PAR
07.11.2023 Libertad Libertad 1-1 HT 0-0 Cerro Porteno Cerro Porteno PAR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Libertad
1-0
AWAY Cerro Porteno
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 8
7 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Libertad vs Cerro Porteno
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Libertad squeezed past Cerro Porteno 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Libertad as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (55%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Libertad had 42% of the ball to Cerro Porteno's 58%, shots finished 11-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Libertad had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Libertad and 1.67 for Cerro Porteno.

What was the final score of Libertad vs Cerro Porteno?

Libertad 1-0 Cerro Porteno in the Paraguay - Profesyonel League on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Libertad vs Cerro Porteno?

Before kick-off our model rated a Libertad win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Libertad 41%, draw 30%, Cerro Porteno 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Libertad), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Libertad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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