Amarante 2-1 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 6 Apr 2025

📅06/04/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.33
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
32%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
2.03
No
57%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
14%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
39%
+1.7pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.7pp
32%
Away Win
31%
+1.0pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.0pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
45%
-2.4pp
57%
BTTS No
55%
+2.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amarante EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 34%
-8% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.67/0.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/1.24
-48% / +97% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -50% / +5%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
275 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 292 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Amarante
3W-0D-1L
AWAY Varzim
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.75
49% Ball Possession 51%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
1 Yellow Cards 1
08.02.2025 Varzim Varzim 1-2 HT 0-1 Amarante Amarante POR3
15.12.2024 Amarante Amarante 0-1 HT 0-1 Varzim Varzim POR3
31.08.2024 Varzim Varzim 1-3 HT 0-2 Amarante Amarante POR3
24.09.2017 Amarante Amarante 1-0 HT 0-0 Varzim Varzim POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amarante
2-1
AWAY Varzim
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 3
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amarante vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Amarante nicked a narrow win over Varzim 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Amarante as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Amarante had 51% of the ball to Varzim's 49%, shots finished 10-6.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Amarante had the better of it with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Amarante and 0.75 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Amarante vs Varzim?

Amarante 2-1 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 06/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amarante vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Amarante win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Amarante 41%, draw 27%, Varzim 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Amarante) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Amarante) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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