Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 6 Apr 2026

Bahia
1-2 HT 0-1
Palmeiras
📅06/04/2026 · 🕒01:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2026

Bahia vs Palmeiras Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.46
Draw
27%
3.04
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.71
Over 2.5
43%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.78
2-3 Goals
39%
1.73
4-5 Goals
20%
3.89
6+ Goals
8%
18.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.78 — our 33% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.65
1/2
5%
32.0
1/X
9%
12.6
X/1
15%
5.46
X/2
14%
5.93
X/X
11%
4.09
2/1
8%
30.0
2/2
17%
4.16
2/X
6%
12.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
37%
+0.9pp
27%
Draw
30%
-2.9pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+2.1pp
57%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.9pp
43%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Bahia v Palmeiras — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bahia EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Palmeiras EU Bookmakers 37%
-3% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +13%
1.29/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.29
+1% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +18% / +5%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
326 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 79%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.8
22.0 Crosses 18.1
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.5

Bahia vs Palmeiras Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bahia
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Palmeiras
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.02 xG 0.97
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
351 Passes 336
82% Pass Accuracy 81%
17 Box Touches 20
13 Crosses 24
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.09.2025 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
28.04.2025 Palmeiras Palmeiras 0-1 HT 0-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
21.11.2024 Bahia Bahia 1-2 HT 1-1 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1
08.07.2024 Palmeiras Palmeiras 2-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
29.10.2023 Palmeiras Palmeiras 1-0 HT 1-0 Bahia Bahia BR1
22.06.2023 Bahia Bahia 1-0 HT 0-0 Palmeiras Palmeiras BR1

Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bahia
1-2
AWAY Palmeiras
1.21 xG 0.29
59% Ball Possession 41%
19 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
7 Corners 5
426 Passes 280
87% Pass Accuracy 81%
30 Box Touches 11
27 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Bahia vs Palmeiras
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Palmeiras nicked a narrow win over Bahia 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Palmeiras found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bahia had 59% of the ball to Palmeiras's 41%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.21 to 0.29 — on chances, Bahia could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Bahia and 0.83 for Palmeiras.

What was the final score of Bahia vs Palmeiras?

Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras in the Brazil - Serie A on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bahia vs Palmeiras?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bahia win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bahia 38%, draw 27%, Palmeiras 35%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bahia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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