Arouca vs Estoril Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Estoril — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Estoril Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Arouca 3-2 Estoril — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca squeezed past Estoril 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
Our pre-match split (38% / 27% / 35%) promised a tight game; Arouca found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged both teams to score (55%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Arouca had 46% of the ball to Estoril's 54%, shots finished 12-12, expected goals 1.87 to 1.09.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Estoril led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Arouca and 2.50 for Estoril.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Estoril?
Arouca 3-2 Estoril in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Estoril?
Before kick-off our model rated a Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Arouca 38%, draw 27%, Estoril 35%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.