Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction — Model Probabilities
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Casa Pia v Benfica — Team-Based Signals
Casa Pia vs Benfica Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica — Actual Match Statistics
Casa Pia and Benfica couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.
This one beat our numbers. Benfica carried 72% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Casa Pia had 21% of the ball to Benfica's 79%, shots finished 8-18, expected goals 0.29 to 1.93.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Casa Pia and 1.83 for Benfica.
What was the final score of Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 06/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 72%, with the full match-result split Casa Pia 12%, draw 16%, Benfica 72%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.