Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Tokushima Vortis — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J2 League, 6 May 2024

📅06/05/2024 · 🕒08:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.96
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
28%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.62
Over 2.5
46%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.96
No
53%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
22%
4.53
6+ Goals
9%
24.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
20%
X/2
11%
X/X
15%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
47%
-0.4pp
26%
Draw
28%
-2.0pp
28%
Away Win
25%
+2.4pp
54%
Under 2.5
58%
-3.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
42%
+3.9pp
47%
BTTS Yes
47%
-0.4pp
53%
BTTS No
53%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fagiano Okayama EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Tokushima Vortis EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +10%
1.38/0.74 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.22
+0% / +49% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / +9%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
340 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 420 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1W-4D-1L
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
242 Passes 384
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.07.2023 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 1-1 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
03.06.2023 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 2-0 HT 0-0 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
14.09.2022 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 1-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
27.02.2022 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 1-1 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
14.10.2020 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama 1-1 HT 0-0 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis JAP2
19.08.2020 Tokushima Vortis Tokushima Vortis 0-0 HT 0-0 Fagiano Okayama Fagiano Okayama JAP2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fagiano Okayama
1-2
AWAY Tokushima Vortis
65% Ball Possession 35%
14 Total Shots 6
4 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Fagiano Okayama vs Tokushima Vortis
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tokushima Vortis nicked a narrow win over Fagiano Okayama 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Fagiano Okayama at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Fagiano Okayama had 65% of the ball to Tokushima Vortis's 35%, shots finished 14-6.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Fagiano Okayama and 0.67 for Tokushima Vortis.

What was the final score of Fagiano Okayama vs Tokushima Vortis?

Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Tokushima Vortis in the Japan - J2 League on 06/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fagiano Okayama vs Tokushima Vortis?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fagiano Okayama win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fagiano Okayama 47%, draw 26%, Tokushima Vortis 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fagiano Okayama) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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