Perugia 4-0 Lucchese — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.18
Draw
32%
3.11
Away
33%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
59%
1.67
Over
41%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.88
No
52%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1
33%
2.71
2-3
40%
1.77
4-5
19%
4.33
6+
8%
21.85
Value flag · 0-1 at 2.71 — our 33% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
8%
X/1
13%
X/2
14%
X/X
15%
2/1
6%
2/2
12%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 59%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
42%
-7.1pp
32%
Draw
29%
+2.8pp
33%
Away Win
29%
+4.3pp
59%
Under 2.5
56%
+2.4pp
41%
Over 2.5
44%
-2.4pp
48%
BTTS Yes
49%
-1.5pp
52%
BTTS No
51%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Perugia EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lucchese EU Bookmakers 32%
+16% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.72/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/0.75
+42% / +30% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -37% / +55%
52% Ball Possession 48%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
327 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Perugia
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Lucchese
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.00
6 Corners 6
07.01.2024 Perugia Perugia 3-0 HT 1-0 Lucchese Lucchese İTC
01.09.2023 Lucchese Lucchese 0-0 HT 0-0 Perugia Perugia İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Perugia
4-0
AWAY Lucchese
42% Ball Possession 58%
16 Total Shots 13
9 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Perugia vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Perugia cruised past Lucchese 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 32% / 33%) promised a tight game; Perugia found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (59%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Perugia had 42% of the ball to Lucchese's 58%, shots finished 16-13.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Perugia had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Perugia and 0.00 for Lucchese.

What was the final score of Perugia vs Lucchese?

Perugia 4-0 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Perugia vs Lucchese?

Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Perugia 35%, draw 32%, Lucchese 33%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Perugia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Perugia) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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