07/01/2024
·
18:15
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
0-1
Perugia vs Lucchese Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
10%
X/X
13%
2/1
10%
2/2
13%
2/X
9%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 62% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH
Under 2.5
— pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
46%
28%
Draw
27%
28%
Away Win
27%
62%
Under 2.5
56%
38%
Over 2.5
44%
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
57%
BTTS No
53%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Perugia v Lucchese — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Perugia
EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY
Lucchese
EU Bookmakers 31%
+23% /
+23%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-2% /
+0%
1.62/0.81
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.75/1.05
+20%
/
+21%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-25%
/
+19%
51%
Ball Possession
49%
14
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Target
3
6
Corners
3
208 · 64%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
329 · 76%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
2.8
Yellow Cards
2.4
Perugia vs Lucchese Head-to-Head — Last 1 Meetings
H2H
Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME
Perugia
0W-1D-0L
AWAY
Lucchese
0.00
Avg Goals (FT)
0.00
6
Corners
6
The Meetings
01.09.2023
Lucchese
0-0
HT 0-0
Perugia
İTC
0-0
HT 0-0
Perugia
İTC
POST-MATCH
Perugia vs Lucchese
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Perugia cruised past Lucchese 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Perugia as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, no to both teams scoring (57%) landed while under 2.5 goals (62%) missed.
What was the final score of Perugia vs Lucchese?
Perugia 3-0 Lucchese in the Italy - Serie C on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Perugia vs Lucchese?
Before kick-off our model rated a Perugia win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Perugia 43%, draw 28%, Lucchese 28%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Perugia), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.
✓ Match Result (Perugia)
✗ Under 2.5
✓ BTTS No
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İTC
More Italy - Serie C
7 Jan 2024