New York City FC 3-1 Nashville SC — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
24%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.38
Over 2.5
46%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.63
No
56%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
5.02
2-3 Goals
38%
1.96
4-5 Goals
22%
2.75
6+ Goals
12%
7.2
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 5.02 — our 28% vs market 15.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.84
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
5%
16.15
X/1
14%
3.89
X/2
10%
11.9
X/X
14%
6.71
2/1
11%
20.05
2/2
9%
8.43
2/X
6%
16.55
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
62%
-12.2pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.2pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
38%
+15.5pp
46%
Over 2.5
62%
-15.5pp
44%
BTTS Yes
57%
-12.7pp
56%
BTTS No
43%
+12.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New York City FC EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 21%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
2.13/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.94/1.67
+11% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -36% / +56%
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 79%
33.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.6
16.8 Crosses 14.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New York City FC
1W-1D-3L
AWAY Nashville SC
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 1.40
1.34 xG 0.91
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
443 Passes 291
85% Pass Accuracy 78%
23 Box Touches 16
13 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 1
23.06.2024 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
16.04.2023 New York City FC New York City FC 2-1 HT 2-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
26.02.2023 Nashville SC Nashville SC 2-0 HT 1-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
03.10.2021 New York City FC New York City FC 0-0 HT 0-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
04.09.2021 Nashville SC Nashville SC 3-1 HT 2-0 New York City FC New York City FC ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New York City FC
3-1
AWAY Nashville SC
40% Ball Possession 60%
11 Total Shots 22
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
363 Passes 590
82% Pass Accuracy 89%
POST-MATCH New York City FC vs Nashville SC
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New York City FC got the better of Nashville SC 3-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had New York City FC as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, New York City FC had 40% of the ball to Nashville SC's 60%, shots finished 11-22.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Nashville SC led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for New York City FC and 1.40 for Nashville SC.

What was the final score of New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

New York City FC 3-1 Nashville SC in the USA - Major League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New York City FC vs Nashville SC?

Before kick-off our model rated a New York City FC win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split New York City FC 50%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (New York City FC) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (New York City FC) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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