Atlanta United 2-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.33
Over 2.5
50%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.46
No
49%
2.51
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.88
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
22%
2.8
6+ Goals
13%
7.52
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.88 — our 26% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
3.19
1/2
7%
26.0
1/X
9%
12.45
X/1
15%
5.52
X/2
16%
6.23
X/X
13%
5.52
2/1
8%
23.6
2/2
14%
3.78
2/X
6%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
41%
-6.0pp
28%
Draw
25%
+2.7pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.3pp
50%
Under 2.5
39%
+11.0pp
50%
Over 2.5
61%
-11.0pp
51%
BTTS Yes
64%
-13.0pp
49%
BTTS No
36%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY New York Red Bulls EU Bookmakers 38%
-2% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +0%
1.45/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.41
+8% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +35%
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
358 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
23.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.5
19.4 Crosses 15.1
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Atlanta United
1W-2D-3L
AWAY New York Red Bulls
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.97 xG 1.52
56% Ball Possession 44%
8 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 7
350 Passes 245
76% Pass Accuracy 70%
14 Box Touches 32
12 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.09.2024 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-2 HT 1-1 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
25.06.2023 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 4-0 HT 2-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
02.04.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-0 HT 1-0 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
18.08.2022 Atlanta United Atlanta United 1-2 HT 0-2 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls ABD
01.07.2022 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 2-1 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
04.11.2021 New York Red Bulls New York Red Bulls 0-0 HT 0-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Atlanta United
2-1
AWAY New York Red Bulls
2.01 xG 0.52
65% Ball Possession 35%
19 Total Shots 6
6 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 4
480 Passes 227
86% Pass Accuracy 74%
24 Box Touches 15
28 Crosses 10
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atlanta United squeezed past New York Red Bulls 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 28% / 38% — and on the day Atlanta United made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Atlanta United had 65% of the ball to New York Red Bulls's 35%, shots finished 19-6, expected goals 2.01 to 0.52 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Atlanta United's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, New York Red Bulls led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Atlanta United and 1.67 for New York Red Bulls.

What was the final score of Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls?

Atlanta United 2-1 New York Red Bulls in the USA - Major League on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Atlanta United vs New York Red Bulls?

Before kick-off our model rated an New York Red Bulls win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Atlanta United 35%, draw 28%, New York Red Bulls 38%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (New York Red Bulls) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (New York Red Bulls) ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
ABD More USA - Major League
6 Oct 2024
00:00 New York City FC vs Nashville SC Analysis →
02:30 New England Revolution vs DC United Analysis →
02:30 Vancouver Whitecaps vs Minnesota United Analysis →
02:30 Columbus Crew vs Philadelphia Union Analysis →
02:30 FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City Analysis →
02:30 Charlotte vs CF Montreal Analysis →