Gwangju 3-1 FC Seoul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Kore - K League Classic, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.47
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
35%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.71
Over 2.5
37%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.81
No
56%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.86
2-3 Goals
45%
1.77
4-5 Goals
14%
4.08
6+ Goals
8%
19.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 33% vs market 29.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
3.79
1/2
7%
31.5
1/X
6%
13.4
X/1
19%
5.37
X/2
16%
5.47
X/X
15%
4.19
2/1
7%
31.5
2/2
11%
3.89
2/X
10%
13.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
37%
-2.1pp
31%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
35%
Away Win
35%
-0.3pp
63%
Under 2.5
55%
+8.1pp
37%
Over 2.5
45%
-8.1pp
44%
BTTS Yes
51%
-7.2pp
56%
BTTS No
49%
+7.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Gwangju EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Seoul EU Bookmakers 38%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -11%
0.83/1.58 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.26/1.28
-7% / +97% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / +20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
351 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 348 · 78%
10.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
13.0 Crosses 18.4
1.8 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Gwangju
3W-0D-3L
AWAY FC Seoul
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
2.31 xG 1.03
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
342 Passes 441
81% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 16
16 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
02.06.2024 FC Seoul FC Seoul 1-2 HT 1-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
02.03.2024 Gwangju Gwangju 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Seoul FC Seoul GKOK
17.09.2023 FC Seoul FC Seoul 0-1 HT 0-1 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
09.05.2023 FC Seoul FC Seoul 3-1 HT 1-0 Gwangju Gwangju GKOK
05.03.2023 Gwangju Gwangju 0-2 HT 0-0 FC Seoul FC Seoul GKOK
03.11.2021 Gwangju Gwangju 3-4 HT 1-0 FC Seoul FC Seoul GKOK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Gwangju
3-1
AWAY FC Seoul
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 6
5 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 0
336 Passes 294
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Crosses 9
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Gwangju vs FC Seoul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gwangju beat FC Seoul 3-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (35% / 31% / 35%) promised a tight game; Gwangju found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Gwangju had 53% of the ball to FC Seoul's 47%, shots finished 13-6.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Gwangju and 1.67 for FC Seoul.

What was the final score of Gwangju vs FC Seoul?

Gwangju 3-1 FC Seoul in the South Kore - K League Classic on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Gwangju vs FC Seoul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Gwangju win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Gwangju 35%, draw 31%, FC Seoul 35%. The final score 3-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/31/35) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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