FC Tulsa 0-1 El Paso Locomotive — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Oct 2024

FC Tulsa
0-1 HT 0-1
El Paso Locomotive
📅06/10/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
USL Championship – 2024

FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.0
Draw
29%
3.35
Away
31%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.86
Over 2.5
40%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.75
No
59%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
36%
3.24
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
7%
14.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.24 — our 36% vs market 25.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
16%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
46%
-5.9pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.6pp
31%
Away Win
27%
+3.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
50%
+10.1pp
40%
Over 2.5
50%
-10.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
53%
-12.4pp
59%
BTTS No
47%
+12.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

FC Tulsa v El Paso Locomotive — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Tulsa EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY El Paso Locomotive EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +6%
1.69/1.11 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.42
-9% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / -9%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
372 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 341 · 79%
23.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
18.9 Crosses 12.2
2.1 Yellow Cards 3.0

FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Tulsa
0W-3D-3L
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.10 xG 2.23
45% Ball Possession 55%
8 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 7
318 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 83%
14 Box Touches 27
16 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
01.04.2023 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 2-2 HT 1-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
05.05.2022 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 3-1 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
10.10.2021 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 1-2 HT 1-2 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP
11.10.2020 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
05.09.2019 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive 2-2 HT 0-1 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa USLP
16.06.2019 FC Tulsa FC Tulsa 0-2 HT 0-1 El Paso Locomotive El Paso Locomotive USLP

FC Tulsa 0-1 El Paso Locomotive — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Tulsa
0-1
AWAY El Paso Locomotive
0.77 xG 2.49
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 5
10 Corners 5
246 Passes 265
81% Pass Accuracy 78%
21 Box Touches 27
36 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

El Paso Locomotive nicked a narrow win over FC Tulsa 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; El Paso Locomotive found the edge the numbers couldn't. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (59%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, FC Tulsa had 49% of the ball to El Paso Locomotive's 51%, shots finished 13-20, expected goals 0.77 to 2.49 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold El Paso Locomotive's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, El Paso Locomotive led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Tulsa and 2.17 for El Paso Locomotive.

What was the final score of FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive?

FC Tulsa 0-1 El Paso Locomotive in the USL Championship on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Tulsa vs El Paso Locomotive?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Tulsa win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split FC Tulsa 40%, draw 29%, El Paso Locomotive 31%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (FC Tulsa) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Tulsa) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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