Indy Eleven 2-2 Louisville City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USL Championship, 6 Oct 2024

📅06/10/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
32%
3.08
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
41%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.07
Over 2.5
49%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.61
No
48%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.92
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.15
6+ Goals
12%
10.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.92 — our 27% vs market 20.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
6%
1/X
9%
X/1
11%
X/2
19%
X/X
13%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
32%
Home Win
29%
+3.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.0pp
41%
Away Win
47%
-5.3pp
51%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
58%
-6.4pp
48%
BTTS No
42%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Indy Eleven EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Louisville City EU Bookmakers 51%
-5% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +3%
1.04/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/0.95
-12% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / +4%
48% Ball Possession 52%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
303 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 330 · 77%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.0
19.2 Crosses 21.4
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Indy Eleven
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Louisville City
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.95 xG 1.65
53% Ball Possession 47%
9 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
342 Passes 299
74% Pass Accuracy 76%
14 Box Touches 22
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
06.04.2024 Louisville City Louisville City 5-3 HT 2-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
30.07.2023 Louisville City Louisville City 2-0 HT 1-0 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
28.05.2023 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 0-1 HT 0-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
01.09.2022 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 2-1 HT 1-1 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
27.03.2022 Louisville City Louisville City 1-1 HT 0-1 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven USLP
17.10.2021 Indy Eleven Indy Eleven 1-0 HT 0-0 Louisville City Louisville City USLP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Indy Eleven
2-2
AWAY Louisville City
0.81 xG 3.21
47% Ball Possession 53%
7 Total Shots 31
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 10
242 Passes 278
71% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 42
30 Crosses 47
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Indy Eleven vs Louisville City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Indy Eleven and Louisville City shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Louisville City at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Indy Eleven had 47% of the ball to Louisville City's 53%, shots finished 7-31, expected goals 0.81 to 3.21.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Louisville City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Indy Eleven and 1.67 for Louisville City.

What was the final score of Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?

Indy Eleven 2-2 Louisville City in the USL Championship on 06/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Indy Eleven vs Louisville City?

Before kick-off our model rated an Louisville City win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Indy Eleven 32%, draw 27%, Louisville City 41%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Louisville City), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Louisville City) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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