PSG 1-2 Atletico Madrid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Champions League, 6 Nov 2024

📅06/11/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.49
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.33
Over 2.5
54%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.68
No
48%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.93
2-3 Goals
39%
1.94
4-5 Goals
25%
2.78
6+ Goals
14%
7.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
33%
1.78
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.45
X/1
15%
3.83
X/2
6%
13.0
X/X
11%
6.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
20.6
2/2
7%
9.39
2/X
7%
17.0
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.6 — our 8% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
63%
-7.6pp
26%
Draw
21%
+4.8pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+2.8pp
46%
Under 2.5
39%
+6.8pp
54%
Over 2.5
61%
-6.8pp
52%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.5pp
48%
BTTS No
44%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME PSG EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Madrid EU Bookmakers 20%
-6% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -4%
2.45/0.99 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.53/2.34
-17% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -53% / +21%
60% Ball Possession 40%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
524 · 87% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 78%
36.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.2
21.6 Crosses 12.3
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME PSG
1W-1D-0L
AWAY Atletico Madrid
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
61% Ball Possession 39%
22 Total Shots 14
8 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 5
562 Passes 330
89% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 28
17 Crosses 8
1 Yellow Cards 0
30.07.2018 PSG PSG 3-2 HT 1-0 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid HAZ
02.08.2009 PSG PSG 1-1 HT 0-1 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME PSG
1-2
AWAY Atletico Madrid
2.12 xG 0.66
71% Ball Possession 29%
22 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 0
793 Passes 260
91% Pass Accuracy 74%
39 Box Touches 9
26 Crosses 7
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH PSG vs Atletico Madrid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over PSG 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSG at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, PSG had 71% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 29%, shots finished 22-4, expected goals 2.12 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured PSG.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 1.50 for Atletico Madrid.

What was the final score of PSG vs Atletico Madrid?

PSG 1-2 Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for PSG vs Atletico Madrid?

Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split PSG 55%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSG) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (PSG) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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