PSG vs Atletico Madrid Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PSG v Atletico Madrid — Team-Based Signals
PSG vs Atletico Madrid Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings
3-2
HT 1-0
Atletico Madrid
HAZ
1-1
HT 0-1
Atletico Madrid
HAZ
PSG 1-2 Atletico Madrid — Actual Match Statistics
Atletico Madrid nicked a narrow win over PSG 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had PSG at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.
On the day, PSG had 71% of the ball to Atletico Madrid's 29%, shots finished 22-4, expected goals 2.12 to 0.66 — the balance of chances actually favoured PSG.
For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, PSG had the better of it with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for PSG and 1.50 for Atletico Madrid.
What was the final score of PSG vs Atletico Madrid?
PSG 1-2 Atletico Madrid in the Champions League on 06/11/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for PSG vs Atletico Madrid?
Before kick-off our model rated a PSG win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split PSG 55%, draw 26%, Atletico Madrid 19%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (PSG) went the other way.