Utrecht 1-1 Porto — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 6 Nov 2025

📅06/11/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.87
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
47%
1.77
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
1.74
Over 2.5
55%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.9
No
43%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.83
2-3 Goals
37%
1.75
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
28%
3.89
6+ Goals
9%
17.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.89 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.22
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
25.5
1/X
5%
15.9
X/1
9%
8.68
X/2
17%
4.21
X/X
14%
4.59
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
21%
2.4
2/X
7%
14.4
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
22%
+4.5pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
47%
Away Win
52%
-5.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
54%
-9.2pp
55%
Over 2.5
46%
+9.2pp
57%
BTTS Yes
49%
+8.4pp
43%
BTTS No
51%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Utrecht EU Bookmakers 26%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto EU Bookmakers 56%
+44% / +44% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -15% / -15%
0.92/0.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/1.45
-13% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -37%
44% Ball Possession 56%
8 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
298 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 370 · 82%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 32.5
12.0 Crosses 20.8
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Utrecht
1-1
AWAY Porto
0.52 xG 1.22
25% Ball Possession 75%
11 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 7
145 Passes 543
67% Pass Accuracy 87%
11 Box Touches 49
7 Crosses 25
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Utrecht vs Porto
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Utrecht and Porto couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Porto at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (57%) landed while over 2.5 goals (55%) missed.

On the day, Utrecht had 25% of the ball to Porto's 75%, shots finished 11-19, expected goals 0.52 to 1.22.

What was the final score of Utrecht vs Porto?

Utrecht 1-1 Porto in the UEFA Europa League on 06/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Utrecht vs Porto?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Utrecht 27%, draw 26%, Porto 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Porto), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
AVL More UEFA Europa League
6 Nov 2025
20:45 Malmö FF vs Panathinaikos Analysis →
20:45 Salzburg vs Go Ahead Eagles Analysis →
20:45 Sturm Graz vs Nottingham Forest Analysis →
20:45 Dinamo Zagreb vs Celta Vigo Analysis →
20:45 Midtjylland vs Celtic Analysis →
20:45 Basel vs FCSB Analysis →