Paderborn 1-2 Elversberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.33
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
39%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
38%
2.03
Over 2.5
62%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.6
No
37%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
3.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.82
4-5 Goals
28%
3.13
6+ Goals
14%
10.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.52
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
27.5
1/X
6%
12.7
X/1
13%
5.72
X/2
15%
6.13
X/X
11%
5.06
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
14%
3.92
2/X
6%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.5 — our 10% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
39%
-0.2pp
22%
Draw
26%
-4.0pp
39%
Away Win
34%
+4.2pp
38%
Under 2.5
45%
-7.2pp
62%
Over 2.5
55%
+7.3pp
63%
BTTS Yes
58%
+4.5pp
37%
BTTS No
42%
-4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paderborn EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Elversberg EU Bookmakers 38%
-6% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -12%
1.95/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.47/1.29
-4% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +11%
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
288 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 316 · 76%
28.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
22.2 Crosses 15.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Paderborn
2W-1D-1L
AWAY Elversberg
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.75
1.25 xG 1.25
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
394 Passes 380
82% Pass Accuracy 83%
24 Box Touches 22
20 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
26.04.2025 Paderborn Paderborn 1-1 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
30.11.2024 Elversberg Elversberg 1-3 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
27.04.2024 Paderborn Paderborn 3-1 HT 0-0 Elversberg Elversberg AL2
25.11.2023 Elversberg Elversberg 4-1 HT 1-1 Paderborn Paderborn AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paderborn
1-2
AWAY Elversberg
0.46 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 10
328 Passes 359
80% Pass Accuracy 84%
25 Box Touches 24
17 Crosses 22
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Paderborn vs Elversberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Elversberg nicked a narrow win over Paderborn 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 22% / 39% — and on the day Elversberg made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (62%), both teams to score (63%) came in.

On the day, Paderborn had 49% of the ball to Elversberg's 51%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.46 to 1.02.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Paderborn had the better of it with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Paderborn and 1.75 for Elversberg.

What was the final score of Paderborn vs Elversberg?

Paderborn 1-2 Elversberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paderborn vs Elversberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paderborn win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Paderborn 39%, draw 22%, Elversberg 39%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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