Fortuna Sittard 1-3 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 6 Dec 2025

📅06/12/2025 · 🕒20:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
31%
3.17
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
47%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.03
Over 2.5
61%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
63%
1.63
No
37%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
3.83
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.11
6+ Goals
14%
10.25
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
5.27
1/2
8%
23.1
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
14%
7.53
X/2
16%
4.94
X/X
10%
5.2
2/1 EV+ ✗
7%
33.0
2/2
24%
2.74
2/X
5%
12.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 33.0 — our 7% vs market 1.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
31%
Home Win
28%
+2.7pp
22%
Draw
26%
-3.4pp
47%
Away Win
46%
+0.8pp
39%
Under 2.5
45%
-6.2pp
61%
Over 2.5
55%
+6.2pp
63%
BTTS Yes
57%
+6.0pp
37%
BTTS No
43%
-6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 50%
+5% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -26%
1.50/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.48/1.33
-5% / +10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -42%
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
305 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 80%
22.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.2
21.3 Crosses 20.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Ajax
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
0.82 xG 2.18
33% Ball Possession 67%
9 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 10
202 Passes 520
72% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 50
13 Crosses 26
2 Yellow Cards 1
09.02.2025 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-2 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
18.09.2024 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
10.03.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
03.09.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.08.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-3 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
1-3
AWAY Ajax
2.72 xG 1.15
36% Ball Possession 64%
26 Total Shots 13
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
225 Passes 470
76% Pass Accuracy 85%
31 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax beat Fortuna Sittard 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 47%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (63%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 36% of the ball to Ajax's 64%, shots finished 26-13, expected goals 2.72 to 1.15 — on chances, Fortuna Sittard could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 2.67 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Fortuna Sittard 1-3 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 06/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 31%, draw 22%, Ajax 47%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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