Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Ajax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eredivisie, 9 Feb 2025

📅09/02/2025 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
23%
5.09
Draw
21%
4.19
Away
56%
1.49
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.29
Over 2.5
59%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
19%
4.54
2-3 Goals
38%
1.89
4-5 Goals
30%
2.76
6+ Goals
13%
7.51
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
9.63
1/2 EV+ ✗
10%
20.05
1/X
6%
17.8
X/1
8%
12.45
X/2
16%
4.09
X/X
9%
6.65
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
30%
1.8
2/X
6%
15.75
Value flag · 1/2 at 20.05 — our 10% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
23%
Home Win
17%
+6.5pp
21%
Draw
21%
+0.3pp
56%
Away Win
63%
-6.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
40%
+1.2pp
59%
Over 2.5
60%
-1.2pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.2pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Sittard EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Ajax EU Bookmakers 67%
-8% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +9%
1.12/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.15/1.25
-31% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +2% / -11%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 6
304 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 428 · 82%
18.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 36.0
15.6 Crosses 17.4
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0W-2D-4L
AWAY Ajax
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.75 xG 2.28
30% Ball Possession 70%
9 Total Shots 21
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 12
198 Passes 564
70% Pass Accuracy 87%
15 Box Touches 56
10 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 0
18.09.2024 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
10.03.2024 Ajax Ajax 2-2 HT 1-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
03.09.2023 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
09.04.2023 Ajax Ajax 4-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
06.08.2022 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard 2-3 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HOL
22.12.2021 Ajax Ajax 5-0 HT 2-0 Fortuna Sittard Fortuna Sittard HOL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Sittard
0-2
AWAY Ajax
0.74 xG 2.49
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 9
2 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 4
266 Passes 283
78% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 22
28 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax got the better of Fortuna Sittard 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fortuna Sittard had 50% of the ball to Ajax's 50%, shots finished 8-9, expected goals 0.74 to 2.49.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Ajax led the recent series with 4 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Fortuna Sittard and 3.17 for Ajax.

What was the final score of Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Fortuna Sittard 0-2 Ajax in the Netherlands - Eredivisie on 09/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Ajax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Sittard 23%, draw 21%, Ajax 56%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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