Amorebieta 2-4 Celta Vigo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
4.04
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
55%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.64
Over 2.5
50%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
2.06
No
49%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2.6
2-3 Goals
45%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.47
6+ Goals
8%
23.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
7.64
1/2
5%
27.0
1/X
7%
16.85
X/1
6%
8.82
X/2
19%
3.72
X/X
12%
4.39
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
32%
2.32
2/X
7%
16.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
21%
-1.9pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.0pp
55%
Away Win
53%
+1.8pp
50%
Under 2.5
57%
-7.2pp
50%
Over 2.5
43%
+7.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
44%
+6.9pp
49%
BTTS No
56%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Amorebieta EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Celta Vigo EU Bookmakers 57%
+8% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -22% / -22%
1.50/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.79/1.27
+3% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / -62%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
291 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 85%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.7
24.0 Crosses 25.2
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.8
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Amorebieta
2-4
AWAY Celta Vigo
1.56 xG 1.33
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 15
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
198 Passes 268
62% Pass Accuracy 68%
21 Box Touches 33
23 Crosses 29
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Amorebieta vs Celta Vigo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Celta Vigo got the better of Amorebieta 4-2 away from home. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Celta Vigo as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Amorebieta had 45% of the ball to Celta Vigo's 55%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 1.56 to 1.33.

What was the final score of Amorebieta vs Celta Vigo?

Amorebieta 2-4 Celta Vigo in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Amorebieta vs Celta Vigo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Celta Vigo win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Amorebieta 19%, draw 26%, Celta Vigo 55%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Celta Vigo), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Celta Vigo) ✓ BTTS Yes
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