Cartagena 1-2 Valencia — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.46
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
50%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.59
Over 2.5
51%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.06
No
50%
1.68
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.76
4-5 Goals
26%
4.97
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.91
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X EV+ ✗
9%
15.15
X/1
9%
7.19
X/2
21%
4.13
X/X
10%
4.17
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.74
2/X
5%
14.6
Value flag · 1/X at 15.15 — our 9% vs market 3.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+0.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.5pp
50%
Away Win
47%
+2.9pp
49%
Under 2.5
59%
-10.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
41%
+10.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
44%
+5.1pp
50%
BTTS No
56%
-5.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cartagena EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Valencia EU Bookmakers 51%
-18% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
1.48/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.21/0.62
+36% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +47% / +80%
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
317 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 395 · 82%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
13.0 Crosses 13.8
5.0 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cartagena
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Valencia
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.48 xG 1.60
64% Ball Possession 36%
11 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 3
398 Passes 188
81% Pass Accuracy 70%
18 Box Touches 15
13 Crosses 10
5 Yellow Cards 2
05.01.2022 Cartagena Cartagena 1-2 HT 0-1 Valencia Valencia İSPK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Cartagena
1-2
AWAY Valencia
0.47 xG 0.91
30% Ball Possession 70%
8 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
235 Passes 720
64% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 33
18 Crosses 34
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Cartagena vs Valencia
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valencia nicked a narrow win over Cartagena 2-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Valencia as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Cartagena had 30% of the ball to Valencia's 70%, shots finished 8-17, expected goals 0.47 to 0.91.

What was the final score of Cartagena vs Valencia?

Cartagena 1-2 Valencia in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cartagena vs Valencia?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valencia win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Cartagena 26%, draw 24%, Valencia 50%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valencia), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Valencia) ✓ Over 2.5
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