Eibar 0-3 Athletic Bilbao — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
53%
1.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.82
Over 2.5
46%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.88
No
54%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.1
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.73
6+ Goals
9%
15.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.1 — our 29% vs market 26.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.59
1/2
8%
26.5
1/X
8%
14.9
X/1
10%
7.04
X/2
22%
4.2
X/X
8%
4.42
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
22%
2.74
2/X
6%
14.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.8pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.0pp
53%
Away Win
54%
-1.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.8pp
46%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
49%
-3.3pp
54%
BTTS No
51%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Eibar EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 58%
+18% / +18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.63/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.40
+67% / -9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +8% / -37%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
250 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 380 · 79%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.6
29.0 Crosses 36.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Eibar
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
0.85 xG 1.21
49% Ball Possession 51%
7 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
235 Passes 268
65% Pass Accuracy 68%
13 Box Touches 17
22 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.08.2023 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 1-1 Eibar Eibar HAZ
20.03.2021 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-1 HT 1-1 Eibar Eibar İS1
27.09.2020 Eibar Eibar 1-2 HT 0-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
17.06.2020 Eibar Eibar 2-2 HT 1-1 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao İS1
14.12.2019 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 0-0 HT 0-0 Eibar Eibar İS1
23.02.2019 Athletic Bilbao Athletic Bilbao 1-0 HT 1-0 Eibar Eibar İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Eibar
0-3
AWAY Athletic Bilbao
0.83 xG 1.01
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 11
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 3
447 Passes 460
84% Pass Accuracy 84%
16 Box Touches 15
16 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Eibar vs Athletic Bilbao
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao cruised past Eibar 3-0 away from home.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Eibar had 49% of the ball to Athletic Bilbao's 51%, shots finished 9-11, expected goals 0.83 to 1.01.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Athletic Bilbao led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Eibar and 1.17 for Athletic Bilbao.

What was the final score of Eibar vs Athletic Bilbao?

Eibar 0-3 Athletic Bilbao in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Eibar vs Athletic Bilbao?

Before kick-off our model rated an Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Eibar 25%, draw 22%, Athletic Bilbao 53%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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