Malaga 0-1 Real Sociedad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
7.95
Draw
26%
4.19
Away
57%
1.33
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.68
Over 2.5
48%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
2.75
No
59%
1.39
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.54
2-3 Goals
35%
1.71
4-5 Goals
21%
4.28
6+ Goals
11%
22.15
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
10.55
1/2
5%
25.5
1/X
6%
19.15
X/1
7%
12.0
X/2
15%
3.45
X/X
12%
5.11
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
37%
1.9
2/X
8%
18.05
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
10%
+7.4pp
26%
Draw
20%
+5.6pp
57%
Away Win
70%
-13.0pp
52%
Under 2.5
56%
-3.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
44%
+3.9pp
41%
BTTS Yes
32%
+8.4pp
59%
BTTS No
68%
-8.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Malaga EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Real Sociedad EU Bookmakers 75%
+5% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.32/2.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.67/0.13
+111% / +4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +150%
40% Ball Possession 60%
8 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
232 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 450 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.0
Crosses 19.6
Yellow Cards 1.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Malaga
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Real Sociedad
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.41 xG 1.48
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
231 Passes 426
73% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 30
18 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 1
22.04.2018 Malaga Malaga 2-0 HT 2-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
10.12.2017 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 0-2 HT 0-1 Malaga Malaga İS1
14.05.2017 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 2-2 HT 1-1 Malaga Malaga İS1
16.01.2017 Malaga Malaga 0-2 HT 0-0 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
27.02.2016 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 1-1 HT 0-0 Malaga Malaga İS1
03.10.2015 Malaga Malaga 3-1 HT 2-1 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad İS1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Malaga
0-1
AWAY Real Sociedad
0.92 xG 1.53
39% Ball Possession 61%
9 Total Shots 16
1 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 5
252 Passes 438
75% Pass Accuracy 84%
8 Box Touches 30
10 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Malaga vs Real Sociedad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Real Sociedad squeezed past Malaga 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Real Sociedad as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Malaga had 39% of the ball to Real Sociedad's 61%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 0.92 to 1.53.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Malaga had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Malaga and 1.00 for Real Sociedad.

What was the final score of Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

Malaga 0-1 Real Sociedad in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Malaga vs Real Sociedad?

Before kick-off our model rated an Real Sociedad win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Malaga 17%, draw 26%, Real Sociedad 57%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Real Sociedad), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Real Sociedad) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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