Le Havre 2-1 Caen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Cup, 7 Jan 2024

📅07/01/2024 · 🕒16:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.75
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
33%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.74
Over 2.5
42%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.95
No
57%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.86
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.04
6+ Goals
9%
18.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.86 — our 33% vs market 28.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
2.31
1/2
7%
34.0
1/X
8%
14.8
X/1
13%
3.9
X/2
7%
8.91
X/X
15%
4.48
2/1
7%
26.0
2/2 EV+ ✗
19%
7.36
2/X
6%
15.65
Value flag · 2/2 at 7.36 — our 19% vs market 9.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
53%
-14.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+2.8pp
33%
Away Win
21%
+11.7pp
58%
Under 2.5
54%
+3.9pp
42%
Over 2.5
46%
-3.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
47%
-4.6pp
57%
BTTS No
53%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Le Havre EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Caen EU Bookmakers 24%
-70% / -70% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +10%
0.00/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.52/1.41
-100% / -56% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +120% / -3%
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
381 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 264 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Le Havre
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Caen
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.34 xG 1.51
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 Passes 370
78% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 21
4 Yellow Cards 2
19.07.2023 Caen Caen 1-3 HT 0-1 Le Havre Le Havre HAZ
29.04.2023 Caen Caen 1-2 HT 0-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
02.09.2022 Le Havre Le Havre 2-1 HT 1-0 Caen Caen FR2
19.03.2022 Le Havre Le Havre 2-4 HT 0-1 Caen Caen FR2
16.10.2021 Caen Caen 2-2 HT 1-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
15.03.2021 Caen Caen 0-2 HT 0-1 Le Havre Le Havre FR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Le Havre
2-1
AWAY Caen
2.53 xG 0.48
52% Ball Possession 48%
18 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 1
449 Passes 404
84% Pass Accuracy 83%
36 Box Touches 13
10 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Le Havre vs Caen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Le Havre edged past Caen 2-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 29% / 33%) promised a tight game; Le Havre found the edge the numbers couldn't. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Le Havre had 52% of the ball to Caen's 48%, shots finished 18-7, expected goals 2.53 to 0.48 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Le Havre's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Le Havre had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Le Havre and 1.50 for Caen.

What was the final score of Le Havre vs Caen?

Le Havre 2-1 Caen in the France - Cup on 07/01/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Le Havre vs Caen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Le Havre win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Le Havre 39%, draw 29%, Caen 33%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Le Havre) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Le Havre) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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