Benfica 1-3 Sporting Braga — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - League Cup, 7 Jan 2026

📅07/01/2026 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.0
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.62
Over 2.5
49%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.96
No
46%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2.48
2-3 Goals
44%
1.74
4-5 Goals
20%
4.41
6+ Goals
10%
23.55
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.86
1/2
5%
35.0
1/X
7%
14.05
X/1
13%
4.54
X/2
8%
7.46
X/X
12%
4.07
2/1 EV+ ✗
13%
29.0
2/2
14%
6.15
2/X
8%
15.1
Value flag · 2/1 at 29.0 — our 13% vs market 1.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
46%
+0.2pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.3pp
26%
Away Win
25%
+1.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
58%
-7.0pp
49%
Over 2.5
42%
+7.0pp
54%
BTTS Yes
47%
+7.5pp
46%
BTTS No
53%
-7.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Benfica EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +54% / +54%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +15%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
304 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Benfica
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Sporting Braga
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.99 xG 0.98
57% Ball Possession 44%
18 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
430 Passes 315
84% Pass Accuracy 79%
32 Box Touches 12
18 Crosses 10
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.12.2025 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 2-2 HT 2-1 Benfica Benfica POR
17.05.2025 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
26.02.2025 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
08.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 3-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PRLK
04.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
27.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Benfica
1-3
AWAY Sporting Braga
58% Ball Possession 42%
18 Total Shots 7
8 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Benfica vs Sporting Braga
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga saw off Benfica 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Benfica had 58% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 42%, shots finished 18-7.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benfica and 1.00 for Sporting Braga.

What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Benfica 1-3 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - League Cup on 07/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting Braga?

Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Benfica 46%, draw 27%, Sporting Braga 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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