Benfica vs Sporting Braga Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Benfica v Sporting Braga — Team-Based Signals
Benfica vs Sporting Braga Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
Benfica 1-3 Sporting Braga — Actual Match Statistics
Sporting Braga saw off Benfica 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2.
Our pre-match lean was Benfica at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.
On the day, Benfica had 58% of the ball to Sporting Braga's 42%, shots finished 18-7.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Benfica and 1.00 for Sporting Braga.
What was the final score of Benfica vs Sporting Braga?
Benfica 1-3 Sporting Braga in the Portugal - League Cup on 07/01/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Benfica vs Sporting Braga?
Before kick-off our model rated a Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Benfica 46%, draw 27%, Sporting Braga 26%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Benfica), Under 2.5 went the other way.