Sporting Braga 2-2 Benfica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 28 Dec 2025

📅28/12/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.17
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.67
Over 2.5
44%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.88
No
57%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.68
2-3 Goals
41%
1.76
4-5 Goals
20%
4.21
6+ Goals
9%
20.95
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
5.58
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
7%
7.08
X/2
13%
4.73
X/X
10%
4.21
2/1
5%
35.0
2/2
27%
2.99
2/X
8%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
28%
+0.4pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.1pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
56%
-0.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
44%
+0.4pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.6pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Benfica EU Bookmakers 48%
-2% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +14% / +19%
0.87/1.26 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.07/1.26
-33% / +36% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +20%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
300 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 335 · 78%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.7
21.7 Crosses 15.2
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sporting Braga
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Benfica
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.78 xG 2.03
43% Ball Possession 57%
9 Total Shots 19
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
295 Passes 416
78% Pass Accuracy 83%
13 Box Touches 33
12 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 2
17.05.2025 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga 1-1 HT 1-0 Benfica Benfica POR
26.02.2025 Benfica Benfica 1-0 HT 1-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
08.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 3-0 HT 3-0 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga PRLK
04.01.2025 Benfica Benfica 1-2 HT 0-2 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
27.04.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-1 HT 0-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POR
10.01.2024 Benfica Benfica 3-2 HT 2-1 Sporting Braga Sporting Braga POK
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
2-2
AWAY Benfica
1.70 xG 1.23
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 5
408 Passes 410
84% Pass Accuracy 82%
15 Box Touches 22
9 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Benfica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga and Benfica couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Benfica at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 49% of the ball to Benfica's 51%, shots finished 11-14, expected goals 1.70 to 1.23.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Benfica led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Sporting Braga and 2.00 for Benfica.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Benfica?

Sporting Braga 2-2 Benfica in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Benfica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Benfica win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 29%, draw 24%, Benfica 47%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Benfica) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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