Arouca vs Gil Vicente Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Arouca v Gil Vicente — Team-Based Signals
Arouca vs Gil Vicente Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
3-0
HT 1-0
Gil Vicente
POR
1-1
HT 1-1
Arouca
POR
1-4
HT 1-2
Arouca
POK
Arouca 2-2 Gil Vicente — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca and Gil Vicente couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
Our pre-match lean was Gil Vicente at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.
On the day, Arouca had 46% of the ball to Gil Vicente's 54%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.18 to 1.70.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca had the better of it with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Arouca and 1.00 for Gil Vicente.
What was the final score of Arouca vs Gil Vicente?
Arouca 2-2 Gil Vicente in the Portugal - Premier League on 28/12/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Arouca vs Gil Vicente?
Before kick-off our model rated an Gil Vicente win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Arouca 16%, draw 33%, Gil Vicente 51%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.