De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Feb 2025

📅07/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.72
Draw
22%
3.64
Away
27%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.68
No
44%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
3.87
2-3 Goals
41%
1.8
4-5 Goals
25%
2.91
6+ Goals
14%
9.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
2.16
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
17%
4.38
X/2
7%
9.54
X/X
10%
5.55
2/1
8%
21.4
2/2
12%
7.17
2/X
6%
15.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
54%
-3.4pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.5pp
27%
Away Win
21%
+6.0pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.7pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.7pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
+0.5pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
-0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME De Graafschap EU Bookmakers 58%
Head to Head
AWAY Den Bosch EU Bookmakers 24%
-5% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -1%
1.83/0.98 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.68
+10% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
312 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 298 · 76%
29.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.4
24.0 Crosses 17.0
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME De Graafschap
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Den Bosch
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.82 xG 0.71
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 5
400 Passes 284
79% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 14
25 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 0
04.10.2024 Den Bosch Den Bosch 2-2 HT 0-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
23.02.2024 De Graafschap De Graafschap 2-0 HT 1-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
15.12.2023 Den Bosch Den Bosch 0-4 HT 0-2 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
19.05.2023 De Graafschap De Graafschap 3-0 HT 2-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
04.11.2022 Den Bosch Den Bosch 2-1 HT 1-1 De Graafschap De Graafschap HOL2
25.02.2022 De Graafschap De Graafschap 0-0 HT 0-0 Den Bosch Den Bosch HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME De Graafschap
1-0
AWAY Den Bosch
1.20 xG 0.30
56% Ball Possession 44%
13 Total Shots 5
4 Shots on Target 0
8 Corners 4
369 Passes 270
80% Pass Accuracy 77%
24 Box Touches 18
28 Crosses 22
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH De Graafschap vs Den Bosch
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

De Graafschap edged past Den Bosch 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had De Graafschap as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, De Graafschap had 56% of the ball to Den Bosch's 44%, shots finished 13-5, expected goals 1.20 to 0.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, De Graafschap had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for De Graafschap and 0.67 for Den Bosch.

What was the final score of De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?

De Graafschap 1-0 Den Bosch in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for De Graafschap vs Den Bosch?

Before kick-off our model rated a De Graafschap win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split De Graafschap 51%, draw 22%, Den Bosch 27%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (De Graafschap) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (De Graafschap) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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