Roda 3-3 AZ Alkmaar II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 7 Feb 2025

📅07/02/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
1.96
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
34%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.38
Over 2.5
52%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.49
No
46%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.7
2-3 Goals
43%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
2.64
6+ Goals
9%
6.76
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.69
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
9%
12.3
X/1
10%
5.14
X/2
11%
7.46
X/X
11%
5.73
2/1 EV+ ✗
6%
21.05
2/2
17%
4.78
2/X
7%
12.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.05 — our 6% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
47%
-7.3pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.1pp
34%
Away Win
29%
+5.2pp
48%
Under 2.5
38%
+10.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
62%
-10.2pp
54%
BTTS Yes
63%
-9.6pp
46%
BTTS No
37%
+9.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Roda EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II EU Bookmakers 32%
-8% / -11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -3%
1.49/1.24 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.43
-9% / +1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -7%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
344 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.8
18.8 Crosses 10.1
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Roda
3W-0D-3L
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.66 xG 0.94
52% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 5
354 Passes 335
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
28 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.08.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 6-1 HT 4-1 Roda Roda HOL2
05.02.2024 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 1-0 HT 1-0 Roda Roda HOL2
06.10.2023 Roda Roda 3-1 HT 2-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
13.03.2023 Roda Roda 2-0 HT 1-0 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II HOL2
07.11.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 2-0 HT 2-0 Roda Roda HOL2
04.04.2022 AZ Alkmaar II AZ Alkmaar II 0-1 HT 0-0 Roda Roda HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Roda
3-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar II
1.86 xG 1.05
52% Ball Possession 48%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 4
10 Corners 2
295 Passes 274
76% Pass Accuracy 76%
36 Box Touches 17
24 Crosses 6
1 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Roda vs AZ Alkmaar II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Roda and AZ Alkmaar II couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (39% / 27% / 34%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Roda had 52% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar II's 48%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 1.86 to 1.05.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Roda and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar II.

What was the final score of Roda vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Roda 3-3 AZ Alkmaar II in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 07/02/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Roda vs AZ Alkmaar II?

Before kick-off our model rated a Roda win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Roda 39%, draw 27%, AZ Alkmaar II 34%. The final score 3-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Roda) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Roda) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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